Tue. Oct 22nd, 2019

Timor Invest

Gold Bullion and Cryptocurrency investing news

Gold speculators sharply drop bullish bets this week

4 min read

Through Tuesday, October 1, 2019
Charts and commentary courtesy of CountingPips.com
Tables courtesy of GoldSeek

Note: Commitment of Traders reports are published Friday with data from the previous Tuesday.


Gold speculators cooled off their bullish bets for 3rd week

Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators sharply cut back on their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week after having previously pushed bets to over a three-year high, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 268,993 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 1st. This was a weekly change of -43,451 net contracts (-13.9 percent) from the previous week which had a total of 312,444 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs)falling by -47,593 contracts (to a weekly total of 322,800 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) decreased by a lesser amount of -4,142 contracts for the week (to a total of 53,807 contracts).

Gold speculators sharply decreased their bullish bets this week following two weeks of rising bullish positions. The drop by over -40,000 contracts was the largest one-week decline since April 16th and brought the overall net position back down to the lowest level of the past nine weeks. Last week, bullish bets had ascended to a total over +312,000 contracts which marked the highest level since July 5th of 2016, a period of one hundred and sixty-eight weeks.

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -303,688 contracts on the week. This was a weekly boost of 41,457 contracts from the total net of -345,145 contracts reported the previous week.

Gold Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Gold Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1489.00 which was a drop of $-51.20 from the previous close of $1540.20, according to unofficial market data.


Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators lowered their bullish net positions in the Silver futures markets again this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 49,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 1st. This was a weekly change of -914 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,729 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) tumbling by -4,035 contracts (to a weekly total of 89,967 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) decreased by a lesser amount of -3,121 contracts for the week (to a total of 40,152 contracts).

Silver speculators continued to reduce their bullish bets for a fourth straight week following a steady rise of bullish positions from early June to early August. The recent setbacks for bulls have been rather modest as bets have only fallen by -12,310 contracts over the past four weeks while the net position remains close to +50,000 contracts. Previously, from June 4th to August 3rd, speculative bets took off from a net position of -8,443 contracts (June 4th) to +62,297 contracts (August 3rd) which amounted to a total gain of +84,534 contracts over that fourteen-week period.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -73,781 contracts on the week. This was a weekly rise of 1,998 contracts from the total net of -75,779 contracts reported the previous week.

Silver Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Silver Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1730.20 which was a shortfall of $-132.60 from the previous close of $1862.80, according to unofficial market data.


US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators once again lifted their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week while also dropping New Zealand dollar bets to a new record low, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 43,028 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 1st. This was a weekly increase of 1,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,939 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) advancing by 2,255 contracts (to a weekly total of 52,568 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a lesser gain by 1,166 contracts on the week (to a total of 9,540 contracts).

US Dollar Index speculators raised their bets for a 6th consecutive week and their bullish sentiment has now risen by a total of +13,529 contracts over that period. These recent gains have pushed the speculative bullish position to above the +40,000 net contract level for a third straight week and to the highest level of the past 127 weeks, dating back to April 25th of 2017.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
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